PSHA Workshop

Future directions for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a local, national and transnational scale

5 to 7 September 2017 in Lenzburg, Switzerland

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This scientific workshop brings together more than 150 leading experts on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) from around the globe to discuss the current state of practice as well as future directions. The workshop will adopt a holistic point of view (i.e. interdisciplinary, multiple spatial- and temporal scales), critically reflecting all elements of modern PSHA.

Distinguished keynote speakers will introduce a range of topics, but we also call for solicited contributions (oral and poster). We will allocate sufficient time for discussions and networking, and the beautiful castle in Lenzburg offers a unique setting.

Revisiting past and ongoing site-specific projects on local, national or transnational scales, we strive to draw conclusions for future PSHA projects. We will also reflect on emerging challenges, such as time-dependence, earthquake interactions, anthropogenic seismicity, model validation, simulation based PSHA, communication of hazard results and procedural requirements for ensuring robustness, especially in the context of PSHA for critical facilities. On day three, we will focus specifically on the needs of community and harmonization projects, such as the next-generation European PSHA.

Alphabetical order by authors. All rights remain with the authors.


Norm Abrahamson

Treatment of Epistemic Uncertainty in PSHA Results (PDF)


John Adams

Pragmatic Choices (and Wrinkles) for Implementing PSHA into National Building Code for Canada (PDF)


Trevor Allen

Recoulouring GSHAP: Challenging the Status Quo of Australian Earthquake Hazard (PDF)


Fabrice Cotton

Increasing Testability – Expanding Possibilities: Some ideas on CSEP Future Developments (PDF)


Luis Dalguer

The Role of Physics-Based Ground Motion Models in Non-Ergodic Site-Specific PSHA Studies (PDF)


Donat Fäh

Considerations About (In)Correct Treatment of Site-Effects in Seismic Hazard Assessment (PDF)


Ned Field

An Overview of the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) (PDF)


Matt Gerstenberger

Time-Dependent Hazard in New Zealand and Uncertainty in Seismic Source Models (PDF pending)


Domenico Giardini

The GSHAP Legacy and Lessons from SHARE and EMME: Learning from Regional and Global PSHA (PDF)


Florian Haslinger

EPOS, EFEHR and the Value of Hazard and Risk Service for the Community (PDF)


Iunio Iervolino

Aftershocks’ Effect on the Assessment of Design Seismic Actions in Italy (PDF)


David Jackson

Resistance to Rupture (PDF pending)


Thomas Jordan

CyberShake Models of Seismic Hazards in Southern California (PDF pending)


Sreeram Reddy Kotha

Site Classification from Spectral Clustering of Empirical Site Amplification Functions (PDF)


Dirk Kraaijpoel

Development of a seismic risk model chain framework for Groningen induced seismicity (PDF pending)


Martin Mai

Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Radiation on Rough Faults for Simulation-Based PSHA (PDF)


Michèle Marti

Communicating Seismic Hazard (PDF)


Warner Marzocchi

A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Testing Seismic Hazard Analysis (PDF)


Catarina Matos

Small Earthquakes in WOMZ. What Do They Tell Us About Active Deformation? (PDF pending)


Morgan Moschetti

Implications for  PSHA  from  the  Use  of  3-D  Simulations: a Wasatch Fault Zone Example (PDF pending)


Francesco Mulargia

Why Is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) Still Used? (PDF pending)


Shyam Nandan

Pseudo-Prospective Forecasting Experiments With a Spatially Variable ETAS Mode (PDF pending)


Marco Pagani

Exploring GEM’s Global Mosaic of Hazard Models: Hints for Regional Hazard Modelling (PDF on request from the author)


Roberto Paolucci

Seismic Action and Site Effects: Work in Progress for the Revision of Eurocode 8 (PDF)


Mark Petersen

An Overview of the 2018 and 2020 Updates of the National Seismic Hazard Models (PDF pending)


Antonio Petruccelli

The Influence of Faulting Style and Tectonic Regime on the FMD: a Global Survey (PDF pending)


Kyriazis Pitilakis

Site Characterization, Site Effects and Site Amplification: Implication to the Ongoing Revision of EC8-Part1 (PDF)


Daniel Roten

The Role of Fault Zone Plasticity in Controlling Extreme Ground Motions (PDF)


Erdal Şafak

Changing Needs of Engineers for Seismic Design (PDF)


Leah Salditch

Large Earthquake Temporal Clustering and Seismic Hazard Assessment (PDF)


Karin Sesetyan

Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Turkey (PDF)


Nilesh Shome

Seismic Hazard Assessment: Challenges from the Loss Modelling Perspective (PDF pending)


Nadine Staudenmaier

Magnitude Scaling Relations in Parkfield and Their Impact on Seismic Hazard Analysis (PDF pending)


Seth Stein

What Should PSH Maps Do and How Well Do They Do It? (PDF)


Gianluca Valensise

The Use of Active Faulting Data in the PSHA Practice: a European Perspective (PDF)


Kris Vanneste

Limits to Validation of Seismic Hazard Maps Implied by Shaking History Simulations (PDF)


Stefan Wiemer

Welcome to Lenzburg and Some Contex (PDF pending)

Alphabetical order by authors. All rights remain with the authors.


Norman Abrahamson

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in California Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models (PDF)


Aybige Akinci

Towards a Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: the Case of Calabria, Italy (PDF)


Claudia Aristizábal

Site-specific PSHA: A Comparison between two fully probabilistic methods, the Euroseistest Case (PDF)


Aida Azari Sisi

The Implementation of Time Dependency in PSHA associated with Induced Seismicity (PDF)

The Implementation of Detailed Site Effects into PSHA Using Ground Motion Simulations (PDF)


Roberto Basili

Earthquake-fault dip angle statistics for PSHA analyses (PDF)

Modelling the 3D complexities of a subduction interface: the Calabrian Arc (Italy) (PDF)


Paolo Bergamo

Comprehensive site characterization with combined active and passive SW surveys (PDF pending)


Sanjay Bora

Adjustable GMPE: NGA-West2 Empirical Fourier and Duration Models (PDF pending)


Thibault Candela

Dual-objective optimization of gas production and induced Seismicity (PDF pending)


Michele Carafa

Seismic coupling of shallow continental faults and its impact on seismic hazard in Italy (PDF)


Alexandra Carvalho

Recurrence interval for great earthquakes in mainland Portugal: a critical overview (PDF)


Carlo Cauzzi

Anatomy of Sigma of a Global Intensity-Measure Prediction Model (PDF)


Eugenio Chioccarelli

A user-friendly gui software for site-specific and multisite seismic hazard assessment (PDF)


Hoseon Choi

The current status of input data for PSHA in South Korea (PDF)


Maria D'Amico

Investigating directivity effects in PSHA through deterministic-stochastic simulations (PDF)


Mine Betül Demircioglu Tümsa

The effects of the different Source Models on PSHA for the Turkish Territory (PDF)


Stéphane Drouet

Seismic Hazard Maps for the French Metropolitan Territory (PDF)


Joao Fonseca

Multi-rupture earthquakes and hazard assessment – the case of Lisbon 1755 (PDF)


Percy Galvez Barron

Characteristics of strong ground motion areas by earthquake cycle simulations (PDF)


Hadi Ghofrani

Impact of Incorporating Clustering into PSHA Models for Induced Seismicity (PDF)


Alexey Gokhberg

A Unified Approach to Formal Description of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (PDF)


Benedikt Halldorsson

Sensitivity of Earthquake Hazard in Iceland Using a New Set of  Ground Motion Models (PDF)


James Holt

Improvement of 1D Site Velocity Profiles for the Kik-Net Network (PDF pending)


Tae-Kyung Hong

Use of historical earthquake damage records for assessment of seismic hazard potentials (PDF pending)


Walter Imperatori

The new BBToolbox v2.0: a revised tool to compute hybrid synthetic seismograms (PDF)


Vanja Kastelic

How much tectonic deformation do we capture by sampling surface fault evidence? (PDF)


Hiroshi Kawase

Reduction of Uncertainty for Source Term using Stress Drop Deviation (PDF)


Alireza Khodaverdian

A Physics-based Earthquake Simulation for Eastern Iran (PDF)


Milad Kowsari

Recalibration and Selection of GMMs for Seismic Hazard Analyses in Iceland (PDF)


Robert Kysel

Methodology of the new PSHA for the NPP Jaslovské Bohunice (Slovakia) site (PDF)


Conrad Lindholm

PSHA; Model and Results for northeast India (PDF)


Elena Manea

Exploratory analysis of new GMPE’s using small/moderate crustal events in Romania (PDF pending)


Arnaud Mignan

Extremes in PSHA: Mmax & Large Multiplets (PDF)


Myunghyun Noh

Assessment of the KMA Earthquake Catalog (PDF)


Bruno Pace

New seismicity models for updating the national Italian SH model (PDF)


María del Puy Papí Isaba

Intensity prediction equation for Austria (PDF)


Florin Pavel

Towards a future seismic design code for Romania – recent developments (PDF)


Laura Peruzza

Complex Source Modelling in Italy: Hints from some Case Studies (PDF)


Anatoly Petukhin

Site specific probabilistic LP motions evaluated by FDM reciprocity method (PDF)


Valerie Sahakian

Investigating Physical Explanations for Path Effects to Reduce Uncertainty in GMPEs (PNG)


Abdullah Sandikkaya

A Probabilistic Procedure to Describe Site Factors for Seismic Design Codes (PDF)

The Distance Scaling of Crustal and Subduction Earthquakes in Japan (PDF)


Hongjun Si

Regional Variation in Ground Motion based on the Comparison of GMPE and Global Ground Motion Dataset (PDF)


Andreas Skarlatoudis

Contribution of Faults to the Seismic Hazard of Stable Continental Regions (PDF)


Dimcho Solakov

Seismic Hazard Modeling for Bulgaria (PDF)


Tim Sonnemann

Towards a Hybrid Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Model for Strong Earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (PDF)


Chih-Hsuan Sung

Single-station and Small-source Regions GMPEs (PDF)

Analysis of Single-Station Sigma Using Single-station GMPE by Huge Ground-Motion Data in Taiwan (PDF)


Paula Teves-Costa

A consistency test on probabilistic earth-quake recurrence models and uncertainties (PDF)


Paola Traversa

French seismic CATalogue (FCAT-17) (PDF)


Nino Tsereteli

Evaluation of Seismic Sources, Max and GMP Models for Georgia (PDF pending)


Elif Türker

Dependency of near field ground motions on the structural maturity of the NAFZ-Turkey (PDF)


Radu Vacareanu

Targeting uniform seismic risk for Romania (PDF)


Alessandro Valentini

Integrating faults and past earthquakes into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for peninsular Italy (PDF)


Ylona van Dinther

Sequential Data Assimilation for Seismicity (PDF)


Chris Van Houtte

Incorporating site attenuation in empirical ground motion models (PDF pending)


Susana Vilanova

Geologically based Vs30 model for Portugal: methodological approach and results (PDF)


Graeme Weatherill

The Devil in the Details: The Mechanics of PSHA calculation - Assumptions & Influence (PDF pending)


Stefan Weginger

Site effect determination and real-time ShakeMap implementation in Austria (PDF)


Danhua Xin

Two Highly Compatible Seismic Hazard Calculation Results Using Cornell-based method and Stochastic Method for Case Study in Shanxi Rift System, China (PDF)


Yifan Yin

Distant, delayed: study of earthquake triggering in Canterbury, New Zealand (PDF)


Oona Scotti

Towards a unified representation and a shared methodological approach for the modelling of faults and uncertainties in hazard studies (PDF)


Lenzburg is a small town in Switzerland with nearly 10’000 inhabitants. It is located 20 minutes by train from Zurich main station and about 40 minutes from Zurich airport. At the foot of its medieval centre lies a rounded hill with the Lenzburg Castle on top at 504 meters above sea level.

Not only counts and dukes used to call Lenzburg Castle their home, also a German poet and an American adventurer once lived at this historically significant site. The castle has always been of great relevance to the region and lived through many political uprisings dated as far back as to the 12th century. In 1986, the castle was carefully renovated and finally opened to the public. Now, the Knight’s Hall, an impressive courtyard and enticing gardens are awaiting us for the first PSHA Workshop.

Public Transportation Guide

Refer to the final programme to learn how to reach Lenzburg and your hotel.


There are four medium-sized hotels directly in Lenzburg and several more in the vicinity. We recommend booking in the following hotels by sending them an email and referring to the PSHA Workshop:

  • Hotel Lenzburg in Lenzburg
  • Hotel Ochsen in Lenzburg
  • Hotel Krone in Lenzburg
  • Hotel Barracuda in Lenzburg
  • Hotel Aarauerhof in Aarau (10 minutes by train, direct connection)
  • Hotel Aarehof in Wildegg (15 minutes by train, changing once)
  • Hotel Ascot in Rombach (20 minutes by bus and train, changing once)

Requirements for Poster Authors

Your poster needs to be prepared in portrait format not exceeding 120 x 180 cm. Check the final programme from page 8 onwards for information on your poster session, poster board ID and its location.

Requirements for Speakers

Keynote lectures will be 18 minutes long and solicited talks 13 minutes. Please prepare your presentation in 16:9 widescreen format and bring the ppt or pdf file on a USB stick. If your presentation includes a video, also save the original file on the USB stick (internet independence). Please contact us before the end of this week in case your presentation includes other special features our technician is supposed to be aware of.

Registration, Abstract Submission and Fellowship Application

We have reached the capacity limit of 150 participants and unfortunately cannot accept any more participants. Abstract submission and fellowship application was open until 7 July 2017.

Local Organising Committee

Prof. Stefan Wiemer, Prof. Domenico Giardini, Dr. Florian Haslinger and Dr. Laurentiu Danciu at ETH Zurich


EPOS, EFEHR and Nagra

  • Prof. Norm Abrahamson, PG&E
  • Prof. John Adams, Geological Survey of Canada
  • Prof. Fabrice Cotton, GFZ
  • Dr. Luis Dalguer, swissnuclear
  • Prof. Donat Fäh, ETH Zurich
  • Dr. Ned Field, USGS
  • Dr. Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science
  • Prof. Domenico Giardini, ETH Zurich
  • Dr. Florian Haslinger, ETH Zurich
  • Prof. David Jackson, UCLA
  • Prof. Martin Mai, KAUST
  • Dr. Warner Marzocchi, INGV
  • Prof. Francesco Mulargia, University of Bologna
  • Dr. Marco Pagani, GEM
  • Dr. Mark Petersen, USGS
  • Prof. Kyriazis Pitilakis, Aristotle Unversity
  • Prof. Erdal Safak, Bogazici University
  • Prof. Seth Stein, Northwestern University
  • Dr. Gianluca Valensise, INGV
  • Prof. Stefan Wiemer, ETH Zurich

The workshop will be structured in six sessions:

  1. Lessons Learned
  2. Seismogenic Source Modelling
  3. Ground Motion Predictions: Models and Site Characterization
  4. Seismic Design & Risk Integration
  5. Hazard Validation & Challenges
  6. National, Regional and Global Initiatives