Research associate
My main research interests are statistical seismology, specifically on the spatiotemporal variation of the earthquake size distribution (the so-called b-value of the Gutenberg and Richter law) and data quality check. I introduced a new and innovative model - called Foreshock Traffic Light System, FTLS - to discriminate, in real-time, whether an ongoing sequence represents a decaying aftershock sequence or foreshocks to an upcoming more significant event, a result never achieved before in seismology (Gulia and Wiemer, 2019, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1606-4; Gulia et al., 2024, SRL, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240163). It is based on the findings of Gulia et al. (2018, GRL, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080619), where we have transformed observations from single case studies into a systematic analysis that revealed typical behaviour in several worldwide aftershock sequences.
Data quality analysis before sophisticated statistical tools is essential to perform a meaningful analysis: I have highlighted the presence of artifacts in seismic catalogues (i.e., non-tectonic events) and quantified, for the first time, their direct impact on b-value and seismic hazard and forecasting (Gulia and Gasperini, 2021, GRL).
Induced and historical seismicity are also part of my research interest: I have described the evolution of the Groningen gas field in terms of b-value (Gulia, 2023, SRL, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220396) showing, for the first time, the correlation between b-value, magnitude, and compaction rates. This important and novel correlation demonstrates that, even in the case of induced seismicity, production can continue safely if it does not exceed a specific value. I contributed to the assessment of parameters (location, orientation, magnitude) of the seismogenic source by macroseismic intensities (Vannucci et al., 2019, Tectonophysics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2018.11.002). Another innovative aspect is my contribution to the estimation of macroseismic location and magnitude via intensities data points (IDPs) of citizen sent through the Lastquake service to EMSC and analysed using data clustering techniques. Tests are currently underway at EMSC to estimate macroseismic epicentre and magnitude in near real-time (Vannucci et al., 2024, SRL, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230245).