Despite intensive research, scientists cannot predict exactly when and where the next major earthquake will occur. Domenico Giardini, ETH Professor of Seismology and Geodynamics, Florian Amann of RWTH Aachen University, Stefan Wiemer, Director of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich, and Massimo Cocco of the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy, want to better understand the physics of earthquake processes with their ERC Synergy project "FEAR".

The rock laboratory "Bedretto Lab" in the Swiss Alps, built by ETH Zurich and the Werner Siemens Foundation, offers FEAR a unique research environment. The researchers will generate small earthquakes under controlled conditions at a depth of more than one kilometre and on a scale of ten to one hundred metres. They will measure a variety of earthquake parameters using a dense sensor network and then analyse them. The consortium hopes to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of earthquakes. The new findings will also be used to advance experiments on the safe use of geo-energy and to improve the predictability of earthquakes.

Whereas most major earthquakes are not preceded by foreshocks, they are always followed by thousands of aftershocks, whose frequency and magnitude fade over time. However, in some cases a major earthquake is followed by an even more powerful one. This was what happened in the sequences of earthquakes that hit Central Italy in 2016 or Ridgecrest, California (USA) in July 2019.

Up to now, there was no way of predicting whether a powerful earthquake was likely to be followed by one of even greater magnitude. But the results of a study recently published in Nature by Laura Gulia and Stefan Wiemer from the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich awaken hopes that we will soon be able to do just that, in real time. Such a scientific discovery would have far-reaching consequences for civil protection, enabling more reliable decisions about evacuating people, allowing rescue workers to target their efforts accordingly, and permitting the implementation of measures to secure critical infrastructure, such as power stations.

Imagine receiving a warning about imminent earthquake shaking before you feel it. Sounds like science fiction? Not quite: In Japan and Mexico such systems are established and in operation for several years. Along the West Coast of the United States such a system, called ShakeAlert, is currently in the first phase of a public roll-out. The US Geological Survey (USGS) awarded funding to several institutions, including the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich, to get ShakeAlert ready for public alerting.

ShakeAlert is an earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States. It has been developed over a period of 13 years and is currently being tested by selected commercial and institutional users. In a next step, with the additional funding awarded by the USGS, ShakeAlert will be made publicly available to a much larger group that will, for example, be alerted via cell phones. This requires improvement of ShakeAlert in several ways: for example, the upgrade of sensor networks, the advancement of algorithms, and public education.

Am Donnerstag, 29. August 2019 hat sich um 16:22 Uhr (Lokalzeit) erneut ein Beben auf der Halbinsel Bodanrück ereignet. Das Beben wies eine Magnitude von 3.5 auf und ereignete sich in einer Tiefe von etwa 4 Kilometern. Beim Schweizerischen Erdbebendienst an der ETH Zürich sind in den ersten Minuten nach dem Beben etwa 30 Verspürtmeldungen eingegangen.

Das Beben ist Teil einer derzeit aktiven Erdbebensequenz auf der Halbinsel, die etwa 10 km nordwestlich von Konstanz (D) liegt. Das bisher stärkste Beben mit einer Magnitude von 3.7 ereignete sich am 30. Juli 2019. Diesem Hauptbeben ging ein spürbares Beben der Stärke 2.9 voraus. In der Folge wurden einige Nachbeben registriert.

Weitere Informationen zur Erdbebensequenz auf der Halbinsel Bodanrück finden Sie in diesem Beitrag.

In Switzerland, earthquakes are the natural hazard with the greatest potential for causing damage. They cannot currently be prevented or reliably predicted. But, thanks to extensive research, much is now known about how often and how intensely the earth could shake at a given location in the future. Consult a variety of different maps using our interactive web tool to find out how likely certain earthquakes are in Switzerland.

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The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich is the federal agency responsible for monitoring earthquakes in Switzerland and its neighboring countries and for assessing Switzerland’s seismic hazard. When an earthquake happens, the SED informs the public, authorities, and the media about the earthquake’s location, magnitude, and possible consequences. The activities of the SED are integrated in the federal action plan for earthquake precaution.

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