The earthquake hazard model of Switzerland makes a prediction of how often and how strong the earth could shake at a certain location in the future. The model is based on knowledge of tectonics and geology, information about the history of earthquakes, damage reports, and wave propagation models.
Switzerland’s earthquake hazard model 2015 replaces the previous model from 2004. A periodic update reflecting the latest technological and scientific findings forms the basis for adequate protection measures. The seismic hazard model 2015 features updated data, revised estimates of historical sources, a homogeneous reference rock, and improved predictive models. The uncertainty regarding estimates of likely ground motions has been significantly reduced relative to the 2004 model, meaning the 2015 model provides a more solid estimate of seismic hazard and a good basis for the earthquake risk model.
Experts and authorities use it as a starting point when making decisions regarding earthquake mitigation and risk management. The Swiss seismic building codes are also based on this model.