- Earthquake hazard: The seismic hazard shows where within a certain timeframe and how frequently certain incidents of horizontal acceleration are likely to occur.
- Earthquake models: Sophisticated models allow increasingly accurate statements on how probable an earthquake of a specific magnitude is within a specific region at a specific time:
- Large earthquakes are often preceded by smaller ones
Smaller earthquakes significantly increase the probability of a subsequent severe earthquake occurring. However, in absolute terms, the probability is still very low.
- Strong earthquakes are only rarely followed by even stronger ones
The probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 being followed within the next seven days by an earthquake of equal or greater magnitude is around 10 percent. This means that in 9 out of 10 cases, no earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 or above will occur over the following week.
- Aftershocks are the norm
Very strong ground movements triggered by an aftershock are around 1,000 times more likely than the statistical mean to occur on the first day after an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0.
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Earthquake hazard in Switzerland
Earthquake prediction