SUMMARY REPORT - Phase I: 1993-95

The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program has completed its first phase of implementation in the fall of 1995 and is showing significant progress towards its global goals in the 1992-1997 planned framework. The present report summarizes:
* the program concept and key elements;
* the main activities and program status at the end of the first phase 1993-95;
* the plan of action for the second phase of implementation 1995-97;
* the proposal for a further one-year phase, ending in 1998, for the dissemination and publication of the results and the preparation of a world map of seismic hazard.
The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR).
In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promotes a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation; the ultimate benefits will be national assessments of seismic hazards, to be used by national decision makers and engineers for land use planning and improved building design and construction.
The GSHAP was launched with a Technical Planning Meeting in Rome (6/92), to focus the consensus of the scientific community on the development of a multi-national and multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment. The first year of GSHAP, 1992, was devoted to the definition and implementation of the regional and management structure, the establishment of the program in the international scientific and engineering communities, the coordination with other UN/IDNDR activities, the establishment of a funding strategy.
The first implementation phase, 1993-95, was devoted to implement the key strategic elements of the program: (i) the operation of regional centres in all continents and (ii) the activation of multinational test areas for seismic hazard assessment in regions of high seismotectonic significance. The second phase of implementation is now under way, and will bring the program to conclusion in 1997, in occasion of the IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97). A final one-year phase has been proposed, to allow by 1998 the publication of GSHAP products and materials (special volumes, maps and CD-ROMS) and the compilation of a global map of seismic hazard.
The GSHAP regional structure is now implemented, most of the planned regional test areas are active and many of the regional centres have assumed a leading role in multinational cooperation in their region. A survey of regional activities of the 1993-95 period and planned for the 1995-97 period is given, listed according to large geographical areas and including both the activities of the regional centres and of the test areas.
It should be noted that in many continents several regional projects are conducted under programs independent from GSHAP; the GSHAP role has been to promote new activities where regional cooperation was poor and to integrate its initiatives with existing programs. Technical reports and minutes are available for most of the listed activities.

The whole South American continent has been selected as test area under the CERESIS Regional Centre. Two main initiatives are under completion or implementation in the GSHAP framework:
i. CERESIS completes in 1995-96 the new seismic hazard assessment for the whole continent, as part of the four-part seismic hazard mapping of Central and Southern America led by PAIGH; the new map is based on an updated earthquake catalogue extending the 1981 SISRA catalogue to 1991 and on a new regional seismic source zonation.
ii. Five Andean countries (Bolivia to Venezuela; Chile is expected to join later) and four European countries cooperate in the PILOTO program, launched under GSHAP and sponsored by the European Community, to produce comparative maps of seismic hazard assessment for the Andean region.
GSHAP initiatives held in South America include the participation in the Regional Seismological Assembly in Brasilia (8/94), the PILOTO coordination meeting in Bogota (10/95), the participation in the UNESCO-GFZ International Training Course on Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Costarica (10/95). Planned activities include a technical workshop in Ecuador (7/96), a regional seismic hazard assessment exercise (spring 97) and the organization of a Training Course in Paleoseismology and Active Faulting jointly with ILP (winter 97).
By 1997 two regional seismic hazard maps will be available: the CERESIS map for the whole continent and the PILOTO map for the Andean countries, complemented by regional earthquake catalogues and seismic source zonations.


A network of national and regional programs in seismic hazard assessment covers Canada, the US, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbeans:
* the new provisional US map has been released in the fall 1995, for implementation in the 1996 five-year upgrade of the national building code;
* Canada and Mexico have also recently revised their national hazard maps;
* PAIGH completes in 1995-96 its four-part seismic hazard assessment of Central-South America, producing maps for Mexico, Central America South of Mexico, the Caribbeans and South America;
* cooperative and bilateral programs are active in different areas of Central America under support of agencies from North America and Europe (Norway, European Community).
In this framework the role of GSHAP has been to promote inter-program coordination at continental scale and to connect activities in Central-Northern America with other regions; for example, PAIGH has adopted the GSHAP standards of uniform magnitude and is now considering an extension of the program to produce a unified map for the whole Central-South America.
A multinational group led by GSC, USGS and UNAM, will produce by 1997 a unified seismic hazard map of North-America under GSHAP, joining the existing national and regional source zonings.


A very active region in the GSHAP framework, with test-areas, Regional Centres, international programs and agencies focussing on seismic hazard assessment with different degrees of advancement.
* The GSHAP implementation in Central-Northern Europe is coordinated by the GFZ Regional Centre in Potsdam.
* The GSHAP Regional Centre for the Mediterranean, the CNCPRST of Rabat, has been named at the end of 1995 the Centre EuroMediterraneen d'Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment (CEPRIS) under the Open Partial Agreement on Natural Disasters of the European Council, with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean areas.
* The GSHAP Regional Centres for Northern Eurasia, the JIPE of Moscow, and for the Middle East, the IIEES of Tehran, have joined efforts in the Caucasus test area.
* The GSHAP Coordinating Centre, the ING of Rome, mantains a role of promotion and coordination of activities in the Mediterranean, and will lead the 5-year UNESCO/IGCP program Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean (1996-2000).
* The European Seismological Commission has played an active role in ensuring the overall coordination needed for the GSHAP implementation in the whole European-Mediterranean.
As a result of these efforts, a network of programs and independent test-areas for seismic hazard assessment has been set up under GSHAP or by other agencies:
i. Central-Northern Europe: following a planning meeting held in Potsdam (7/93) and a workshop in De Bilt (12/94), the regional seismic catalogue is under completion for NW Europe; the catalogue for NE Europe and the seismic hazard zonation for the whole region will be completed by 1997; the next meeting will take place in occasion of the 25th ESC Assembly in Reykjavik (9/96).
ii. DACH: as part of the Central-Northern European area conducted by GFZ, a unified hazard assessment for the German speaking countries has now been produced.
iii. Ibero-Maghreb: the reactivation of the former ESC program has been planned during a workshop in Granada (5/94) and will be conducted under the coordination of the EC/OPA CEPRIS of Rabat with a 5-year timescale, expanded to the whole Western Mediterranean; a general planning meeting is planned in Rabat (fall 96).
iv. ADRIA: this program includes all countries bordering on the Adriatic Sea and is coordinated by the OGS of Trieste; workshops have been held in Trieste (7/94), Athens (9/95) and Ljubliana (10/95); preliminary seismic zoning maps and earthquake catalogue have been compiled.
v. RELEMR: UNESCO and USGS have launched the program Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, which is also expected to produce regional seismic hazard maps covering from Turkey to the Red Sea; an initial meeting was held in Cairo (10/93) and a second planning meeting in Paris (5/95).
vi. CAUCAS: the Test Area for Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Caucasus has been proposed by GSHAP and jointly supported by IASPEI, and includes the seismological institutions from the Caucasian republics, Russia, Turkey and Iran; workshops have been held in Tehran (1/93), Moscow (9/93), Ashgabad (10/94), Tehran (5/95); inter-regional working groups on the main steps of seismic hazard assessment have been formed, with scheduled activities and workshops for 1996-97; preliminary earthquake catalogue and seismic zoning have been produced; the CAUCAS activities are now supported by INTAS under contract 94-1644; the main 1996 event will be the NATO-ARW Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus to be held in Armenia (7/96).
vii. SESAME: starting in 1996, the 5-year UNESCO/IGCP program Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean will integrate the regional databases and products in a unified seismic hazard assessment for the whole basin; the first meetings are planned in Rome (6/96) and Reykjavik (9/96).
viii. BEECD: the program A basic european earthquake catalogue and database for the evaluation of long-term seismicity and seismic hazard is supported by the European Community under contract 94-0479 and coordinated by IRRS of Milan, in coordination with the GSHAP activities listed above.
The forthcoming 25th ESC Annual Assembly (Reykjavik, 9/96) and the 29th IASPEI General Assembly (Thessaloniki, 8/97), will include special GSHAP sessions, providing the occasion to review and integrate the listed programs and test areas.


Activities are proceeding under two integrated multi-national initiatives:
i. Following a regional planning meeting in Nairobi (11/93), the Regional Centre at the University of Nairobi has collected national seismic catalogues and compiled a regional catalogue and a seismic hazard zonation following a historical probabilistic approach.
ii. the Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Seismological Working Group produces regional seismic bulletins with support from Norway, Sweden and IASPEI and recently joined efforts with GSHAP, holding joint workshops in Entebbe (8/94), Addis Abeba (1/95) and Bulawayo (2/96); preliminary earthquake catalogue and hazard mapping for the Rift area have been produced, including site-specific hazard assessments for large cities along the Rift.
These two initiatives will be unified in 1997 with the UNESCO/GFZ International Training Course in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment (Nairobi, 9/97), where the final products for the test area will be presented.


Three main initiatives are active in this vast area.
Northern Eurasia. The GSHAP Regional Centre in Moscow, JIPE, is coordinating the seismic hazard mapping for the whole territory of the former USSR. This five-year program, initiated before the FSU break-up and interrupted during the period of more intense political turmoil, is now proceeding with the compilation of catalogue and the assessment of hazard, using for the first time a probabilistic approach. Technical workshops are held routinely in Moscow. The whole area has been subdivided in five blocks, and the release of regional hazard maps is expected by 1997.
The GSHAP test area has been established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar- Bangla Dash, under the direction of the SSB of Beijing, the GSHAP Regional Centre, in cooperation with the NGRI of Hyderabad; activities initiated with a planning meeting in Beijing (10/93), followed by the preliminary compilation of regional catalogues and by technical workshops in Beijing (10/94) and Hyderabad (3/96), to produce the final earthquake catalogue, seismic source zoning and hazard assessment for presentation in occasion of the ASC Assembly in Tangshan (8/96) and the 30th IGC in Beijing (8/96).
In addition, the Eastern Asia Natural Hazards Mapping project, led by the GSJ, will produce maps of main hazards and background data, including earthquakes and felt intensities, for the whole Eastern Asia region from China to Japan to Indonesia at 1:5 million scale; planning meetings were held in Tsukuba (6/93) and Yokohama (5/94), and two technical workshops in Tsukuba (9/94, 9/95). The EANHM project coordinates its activities with the GSHAP centres in Asia (SSB) and Australia (AGSO).


Activities in the whole region, including Australia, New Zealand and the S. Pacific Islands, are coordinated in a unified test area by the AGSO of Canberra. The first GSHAP South-West Pacific/South-East Asia Regional Meeting was held in Melbourne (11/95), following the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, to review ongoing progress and to schedule activities and regional cooperation; due to the region scattered geography, in a first phase (1996) activities will progress in independent sub-areas - Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Tonga-Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Is. - with common approach and methodology; in the final phase databases and maps will be merged into a unified seismic hazard assessment for the whole region in 1997.
Another key element of the GSHAP implementation is the pursue of activities and tasks devoted to the improvement of the global practice of seismic hazard assessment. Three main initiatives are under way and will be completed by 1997.
I. The creation of a uniform instrumental global seismic catalogue for this century.
With the aim of extending the global instrumental earthquake catalogue and database, now available since 1964 (ISC, NEIC), to cover the whole century, work is in progress at USGS and University of Colorado, under a NSF grant, on the digital scanning and processing of the ISS Bulletins; scanning will be completed by the end of 1996, and event location in early 1997, using modern travel-times and location procedures used at NEIC; scanning and processing of the BCIS unbound Bulletins is also planned, starting in the summer of 1996. Due to technical difficulties, no work is proposed for the moment on the determination of a uniform Mw magnitude for the whole catalogue.
II. Software for seismic hazard assessment.
The goal of across-boundary integration of seismic hazard databases and products was identified in the Rome 1992 planning meeting as crucial to the global implementation of GSHAP. While recognizing that each region may pursue its own approach to seismic hazard assessment depending on the characteristics of its seismicity and on the coverage and quality of the earthquake record, GSHAP has identified the seismotectonic probabilistic approach as a suitable standard for global application, to allow the comparison and integration of regional maps and zonations. To implement this strategy, by making available worldwide an integrated software package dealing with all the steps of seismotectonic hazard computation, the code FRISK88M by Risk Engineering has been selected among several available algorithms, and is now distributed free of charge by Risk Engineering for GSHAP applications to all test areas and regional centres. In addition, GSHAP has cooperated in the preparation of algorithms for catalogue handling and toolboxes for the definition of seismic source zoning, which will become available on the IASPEI Shareware Software Library.
III. Multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment.
The global evaluation of seismic hazard requires the characterization of the earthquake cycle over recurrence times spanning from 10-102 years in active tectonic areas to 103-105 years in areas of slow crustal deformation. A primary goal of GSHAP has been the implementation of a multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment introducing the results from geological disciplines dealing with active faulting (neotectonics, paleoseismology, geomorphology, geodesy) to complement the historical and instrumental records of earthquakes. This goal has been pursued with several initiatives:
i. The adoption of the seismotectonic probabilistic approach for global application reflects the aim to incorporate the geological input to characterize the earthquake recurrence in space and time.
ii. The workshop on Active Faulting Studies for Seismic Hazard Assessment, held in Erice (Sicily, 9/95), brought together specialists in active faulting studies with seismologists and engineers responsible for developing assessment methodologies and for leading major national seismic hazard programs from all continents, to explore new trends in active faulting studies and verify the extent to which the geological input is being used in seismic hazard assessment practice. The workshop produced a document of recommendations, which is being circulated worldwide.
iii. GSHAP and the ILP Projects II-2: Maps of Major Active Faults and II-3: Earthquakes of the Late Holocene have joint activities under way and scheduled for 1995-97, including the 1996 NATO/ARW Historical and Pre-historical Earthquakes in the Caucasus and the Training Course in Paleoseismology and Active Faulting in South America in 1997.
iv. Scientific articles illustrating strategies and examples in multidisciplinary seismic hazard assessment have been published on proceedings volumes and scientific journals; among these, the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36-3, 1993) includes seminal papers on the integration of the geological input in seismic hazard assessment.
The implementation of GSHAP relies on the cooperation with several international scientific agencies, commissions and programs.
It is noted here that the impact of the Decade in the scientific community has been less widespread and effective than originally expected, and that, with few notable exceptions, the support provided by UN agencies to demonstration programs like GSHAP has been minor. However, GSHAP obtains support on the basis of its scientific value and will prove useful to the scientific-engineering community and to the general public beyond the end of the Decade.
ILP has launched GSHAP (ILP Project II-0) and established its worldwide operation. The integration between GSHAP and the ILP Projects II-2: Maps of Major Active Faults and II-3: Earthquakes of the Late Holocene was planned since the beginning and now has several joint activities under way and scheduled for 1995-97, including the 1995 Erice workshop on Active Faulting Studies for Seismic Hazard Assessment, the 1996 NATO/ARW Historical and Pre-historical Earthquakes in the Caucasus and the Training Course in Paleoseismology and Active Faulting in South America in 1997.
Seismic hazard assessment is a multidisciplinary effort geared at integrating the input from different geophysical and geological disciplines represented in IUGG and IUGS; however, the traditional affiliation of seismic hazard is within IASPEI and here GSHAP has found the largest support. Several IASPEI commissions and working groups have an active role in the GSHAP implementation: the Commission on Earthquake Prediction and Hazard is running jointly with GSHAP the Caucasus test area, the Committee for Developing Countries and the Commission for the IDNDR have been kept closely informed and involved in GSHAP activities, the Working Group on Earthquake Risk and Losses is active within the RELEMR program and held joined activities in Moscow (10/93), the European Seismological Commission is effectively coordinating GSHAP activities in the larger European-Mediterranean area, allocating special sessions to GSHAP within its annual assemblies, and it is also expected that the newly formed Asian Seismological Commissions will help promote GSHAP implementation.
UNESCO is very active in the field of seismic risk assessment and mitigation and has provided overall support to GSHAP activities. In particular, GSHAP is working in close coordination with three UNESCO programs:
i. the UNESCO/USGS program Reduction of Earthquake Risk in the Eastern Mediterranean Region is integrated in the framework of regional test areas activated by GSHAP in the larger Mediterranean area;
ii. UNESCO has encouraged a GSHAP proposal for a program on Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean for its International Geological Correlation Program;
iii. GSHAP is participating in the UNESCO/GFZ International Training Courses in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment in 1995 in Central America and in 1997 in Kenya.
GSHAP is one of the programs selected by the ICSU Committee for IDNDR as scientific contribution to the IDNDR. ICSU has been very supportive of GSHAP since its beginning, providing guidance, encouragement and managing funds which have helped to promote GSHAP activities in several key areas.
UN/IDNDR Secretariat
The Secretariat has recently launched the program Risk Assessment and Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS), with the International Workshop on Earthquake Disaster Reduction in Urban Areas held in Jakarta (6/95). RADIUS is the natural sequel to GSHAP in the IDNDR context, moving from hazard assessment to engineering applications and risk mitigation strategies. GSHAP has been requested to provide input to RADIUS and the cooperation between the two programs is expected to be close.
The need to close the bridge often existing between the scientific and engineering communities working in seismic hazard and risk assessment was recognized in the GSHAP planning and the cooperation with the engineering community has been established. The IAEE World Seismic Safety Initiative has recognized GSHAP and accepted GSHAP observers at the WSSI Board of Directors (Vienna, 8/94) and at the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering (Melbourne, 11/95); representatives of the engineering community sit on the GSHAP Steering Committee. However, no concrete joint initiatives are planned to take place within the period of GSHAP implementation.
The EC Open Partial Agreement on Major Disasters has named the CNCPRST of Rabat, one of the GSHAP Regional Centres, as the Centre EuroMediterraneen d'Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment (CEPRIS), with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean areas.
The WMO Hydrology and Water Resources Department is implementing its System for Technology Exchange for Natural Disasters (STEND), an information exchange programme aimed at increasing awareness of available technology through the dissemination of knowledge about the different methodologies used in fields related to natural hazards; targeted at developing countries, STEND has been adopted by the UN/IDNDR as a spearhead program. GSHAP closely cooperates with STEND: seismic hazard is one of the key fields of implementation of STEND; representatives of IASPEI and GSHAP sit on the STEND Advisory Committee; GSHAP is collecting entries on seismic hazard assessment technologies for the STEND Reference Manual under preparation; the GSHAP Regional Centres will be included in the list of focal points for knowledge transfer.
The GSHAP implementation and the activities of the Regional Centres and test areas require significant funding. Contrary to the original expectations, the support directly provided or fostered by the UN/IDNDR has been minimal and GSHAP has secured support from different sources:
A. Funds provided or raised by the Regional Centres have been instrumental to organize workshops and conduct activities at the Regional Centres (most notably at GFZ, SSB, IIEES, JIPE and Nairobi University).
B. Special funds raised by the Coordinating Centres to organize general GSHAP events such as the 1992 Technical Planning meeting in Rome, the publication of the GSHAP Technical Volume, the 1995 Workshop on Active Faulting Studies for Seismic Hazard Assessment; special funds will be needed also for the final phase of publication of results.
C. Projects submitted to international funding agencies for scientific research and cooperation provide significant support for the implementation of the test areas in South America (CEC Ct. 94-0103: Pilot project for regional earthquake monitoring and seismic hazard assessment), the Caucasus (INTAS Ct. 94-1644: Test area for seismic hazard assessment in the Caucasus; NATO-ARW Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus), the Mediterranean (EC/OPA CEPRIS; UNESCO/IGCP Sismotectonics and seismic hazrad assessment of the Mediterranean). Proposals are pending or in preparation to support activities in Africa and Central-Southern Asia.
D. A coordinating fund has been provided in the last years by international scientific agencies (ILP, ICSU, IASPEI), and by ING, averaging about 22.000$ per year; occasional contributions have been made by UNESCO and Kinemetrics.
E. As detailed above in the survey of regional activities, several international projects and test areas in seismic hazard assessment are activated and supported by other agencies and programs in different areas of the world (e.g. RELEMR, EANHM, BEECD, PAIGH), with coordination with GSHAP.
With the funding secured by GSHAP until now (A-D), it is estimated that by the closing of the program in 1997, the overall budget for the GSHAP implementation will exceed 1.5 M$.
The dissemination and publication of GSHAP ideas and results is rapidly increasing: the first print of the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36, 3-4, 1993; 2000 copies) has been distributed worldwide, receiving praise and recognition; GSHAP activities and results have been presented at the major international and regional assemblies and meetings of the last three years; research papers and articles describing the program's approach and regional activities have appeared on scientific journals, special volumes and regional bulletins; sessions dedicated to GSHAP have been hosted by the assemblies of IASPEI, ESC, ASC and SSA and by other international meetings; GSHAP workshops have been organized in all test areas, as listed above. As these activities will continue in the second phase of the program, the number of published articles and reports is expected to increase.
In addition, progress reports and summaries prepared by the Coordinating Centre have been distributed worldwide (7/92, 11/92, 12/93, 2/94, 9/94, 6/95 and 3/96) and periodic summaries have appeared on bulletins and newsletter of IASPEI, ICSU, ILP, AGU.
At the planned closing of the program in 1997, most of the GSHAP test areas will produce their final hazard assessment, and a one-year phase is planned to allow the publication and dissemination of results, including a special volume collecting the reports of all test areas, the distribution of CD-ROMs containing earthquake databases, seismic source zoning and hazard maps.
Finally, starting with this summary, GSHAP will be on the Internet. Program reports, workshop announcements and minutes, reports of regional centres and test areas and regional maps of seismic hazard will be found at the ING site and the ILP site
The GSHAP implementation and activities are supervised by a Steering Committee listing 15 renown experts in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake engineering from all the world. The role of the Steering Committee has been instrumental in setting guidelines, conducting regional activities, raising support and participating in the global programs of GSHAP.
Steering Committee meetings have been held routinely, more often in conjunction with major international scientific assemblies: Rome (6/92), Ixtapa (4/94), Wellington (1/95), Brasilia (8/94), Boulder (7/95), Erice (8/95). Future ad-hoc meetings are scheduled in occasion of the 1996 assemblies of the ASC in Tangshan (8/96) and of the ESC in Reykjavik (9/96); a plenary meeting will be convened at the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97) to evaluate the program and plan the final phase of publication of results.
The GSHAP Steering Committee, in its 1995 meetings in Boulder and Erice, evaluated the first phase of implementation of GSHAP, 1993-95, and prepared the schedule for the continuation and completion of the program, involving a second phase of expansion, 1995-97, and a closing phase for the publication of results and databases and the preparation of a world map of seismic hazard, 1997-98.

PHASE II: 1995-97

According to the original 1992 plans, the second Phase of the GSHAP implementation, 1995-97, will be devoted to complete the work in the test areas and, where possible, to expand them to cover whole continents. By 1997 most of the GSHAP test areas will produce their final hazard assessment, complemented by regional earthquake catalogues and seismic source zonations, to be presented in occasion of the GSHAP session at the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97). These test areas are:
i. South America ii. Andes iii. North America
iv. Central-Northern Europe v. DACH vi. ADRIA
vii. Caucasus viii. African Rift ix. Northern Eurasia
x. China-India xi. Oceania
Other test-areas initiated their activities only recently and will produce regional hazard assessment later in the Decade; among these are the Ibero-Maghreb and the Mediterranean. A list of contacts for these test areas and for the Regional Centres involved in their implementation is enclosed.
In addition to the regional activities, we expect concrete results from the projects and tasks devoted to the improvement of the global practice of seismic hazard assessment:
i. The compilation of a uniform instrumental global seismic catalogue for this century, derived from the digital scanning of the ISS-BCIS bulletins and the relocation to modern standards, will be completed by 1997.
ii. An integrated software package, including the code FRISK88M by Risk Engineering and a toolbox for data handling and preprocessing, will be used during this phase at GSHAP centres and test areas, ensuring global integration of databases and results.
iii. The multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment will continue to be pursued through the widespread use of the seismotectonic probabilistic approach in GSHAP test areas, the organization of thematic workshops and training courses listed above, the integration with the ILP projects on active faulting and paleoseismology, the publication of scientific articles and reports.
In addition to regional workshops in all continents, review meetings at continental scale and ad-hoc meetings of the GSHAP Steering Committee are scheduled at the 1996 assemblies of the ASC in Tangshan (8/96) and of the ESC in Reykjavik (9/96). The plenary meeting of the Steering Committee and the GSHAP special session planned in occasion of the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97) will close the second phase of GSHAP implementation.


A one-year phase of completion of the GSHAP has been proposed by the Steering Committee, to be dedicated to the publication of the GSHAP results and to the compilation of a global map of seismic hazard. This closing phase will initiate following the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97), where the Steering Committee will evaluate the overall implementation of the program.
The closing phase will be devoted to two specific tasks:
I. There is a need to collect in uniform fashion and ensure the publication and dissemination of the databases and results developed during the implementation of the test areas; the publication of a special volume, collecting the reports from the test areas listed above, will be accompanied by the release of the databases, seismic source zoning and hazard maps on CD-ROM support.
II. The maps produced in the test areas will cover a large part of the world; to integrate the regional outputs and provide a reference, a uniform map of global seismic hazard will also be produced; a task group will be formed in Thessaloniki with the mandate of unifying and integrating the regional seismic zonings and produce a uniform global map for wide distribution.
More detailed specifications on both tasks will be developed in the coming year, and finalized at the closing meeting of the second phase of implementation 1995-97.
Revised report released on April 1, 1996, by Domenico Giardini, GSHAP Coordinator

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