About us

Our group focuses on research on statistical seismology, improved probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, time-dependent hazard and risk assessment, and seismotectonic analysis using seismicity.

A typical example for the kind of research we are working on are the first generation of time-dependent earthquake hazard maps ('The eartquake weather") for California,  (Gerstenberger, M. C., et al., 2005. "Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California." Nature 435(7040): 328-331.). The maps can be accessed via the USGS web site. Similar maps are now being produced for Switzerland.

In this system, the probability of strong earthquake shaking (with a Modified Mercalli Intensity of VI or greater) in the next 24 hours is calculated and updated every hour. The system considers all the earthquakes, large and small, that are recorded by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), the California element of the Advanced National Seismic System. For each event, the probability that it will be followed by an earthquake large enough to cause strong shaking is calculated from the known behavior of aftershocks and the possible shaking pattern predicted from historic patterns. These probabilities apply both to aftershocks smaller than the first event and to the possibility that the "aftershock" will be larger than the first event which will then become a foreshock.